6. Gas flaring contributes to climate change

Gas flaring contributes to climate change, which has serious implications for both Nigeria and the rest of the world. The burning of fossil fuel, mainly coal, oil and gas - greenhouse gases - has led to warming up the world and is projected to get much, much worse during the course of the 21st century, according to The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This scientific body was set up in 1988 by the UN and the World Meteorological Organisation to consider climate change.

In its 2001 Third Assessment Report,^[ 46 ] the IPCC said that the global average surface temperature increased by about 0.6°C over the 20th century, that it was 66-90% confident that most of the observed warming over the second half of the century was due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, and projected that the temperature would increase from 1990-2100 by 1.4 to 5.8°C. It also stated that global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100, due primarily to thermal expansion and loss of mass from glaciers and ice caps.

In July 2003, Sir John Houghton, formerly co-Chair of the IPCC's Scientific Assessment Working Group and Chief Executive of the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office said that:

"the impacts of global warming are such that I have no hesitation in describing it as a 'weapon of mass destruction'". ^[ 47 ]

In January 2004, the UK Government's Chief Scientist said that:

"climate change is the most severe problem we are facing today, more serious even than the threat of terrorism." ^[ 48 ]

Climate change is particularly serious for developing countries, and Africa as a continent is regarded as highly vulnerable with limited ability to adapt. The IPCC identified 6 areas of concern for the continent as a whole, all of which are relevant in some part of Nigeria:^[ 49 ]

"Africa is highly vulnerable to the various manifestations of climate change. Six situations that are particularly important are:

• Water resources, especially in international shared basins where there is a potential for conflict and a need for regional coordination in water management
• Food security at risk from declines in agricultural production and uncertain climate
• Natural resources productivity at risk and biodiversity that might be irreversibly lost
• Vector- and water-borne diseases, especially in areas with inadequate health infrastructure
• Coastal zones vulnerable to sea-level rise, particularly roads, bridges, buildings, and other infrastructure that is exposed to flooding and other extreme events
• Exacerbation of desertification by changes in rainfall and intensified land use."

According to the Nigerian government, "it is widely assumed that over the past decade in West Africa, temperatures have generally increased by 0.2 to 0.3 degree centigrade." ^[ 50 ]

On this basis the government has reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) its analysis of the country's vulnerability to, impact of, and adaptations to climate change in relation to its physical and ecological systems, agriculture and livestock production, fisheries, water resources, energy, industry and mining, transport, tourism and health. This analysis was presented by the Federal Ministry of Environment in November 2003.^[ 51 ]

For example, adaptation measures and coping strategies required in the agriculture and livestock production sectors include alterations to the planting calendar and crop choices, increased irrigation and reductions in stocking rates or livestock density. In respect of the energy sector, the analysis states:

"The most significant impact of climate change on energy will include (a) higher electricity demand for heating, cooling, water pumping, etc., (b) reduced availability of hydroelectricity and fuelwood, and (c) extensive damage to petrochemical industrial installations presently concentrated in the coastal belt."

In this context, the contribution to climate change of gas flaring in the Niger Delta is particularly ironic, to say the least.

Another major implication for northern Nigeria is further desertification:

"In the past 25 years, the Sahel has experienced the most substantial and sustained decline in rainfall recorded anywhere in the world within the period of instrumental measurements (Hulme and Kelly, 1997). Linear regression of 1901-1990 rainfall data from 24 stations in the west African Sahel yields a negative slope amounting to a decline of 1.9 standard deviations in the period 1950-1985 (Nicholson and Palao, 1993). Since 1971, the average of all stations fell below the 89-year average and showed a persistent downward trend since 1951." ^[ 52 ]

Desertification in Africa has already reduced by 25% the potential vegetative productivity of more than 7 million km2, or one-quarter of the continent's land area (UNEP, 1997).^[ 53 ] It will lead to more people being unable to live in the countryside and to an increase pressure on urban areas.

How flaring contributes to climate change

The burning of gas by flaring leads to the emission of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. Venting of the gas without burning, a practice for which flaring seems often to be treated as a synonym, releases methane, the second main greenhouse gas. Together, and crudely, these gases make up about 80% of global warming to date.

The IPCC estimated in the Third Assessment Report that about 60% of the radiative forcing (essentially, the measure of contribution to global temperature increases) due to increases of the well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1750-2000 was from carbon dioxide, and about 20% was from methane. Methane, however, has a much higher global warming potential than carbon dioxide even though it is shorter lived: after 20 years, 1 kg of methane is 62 times more powerful than 1 kg of carbon dioxide, over 100 years it is 23 times more powerful and over 500 years it is 7 times more powerful.

A helpful overview of the uncertainties associated with estimating accurate contributions is provided by the World Bank in the Box on the right.^[ 54 ]

The same report also includes a useful summary of the Kyoto Protocol, agreed in 1997 under the UNFCCC and imposing legally binding emission cuts on developed country Parties. Nigeria acceded to the Protocol on 10th December 2004 and it came into force in February 2005:

"Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from flaring and methane emissions from venting have high global warming potential and contribute to climate change; methane is many times more potent a GHG than CO₂ (see Box). Flaring may in some places have harmful effects on human health and ecosystems near flaring sites. Global CO₂ emissions from flaring are nearly 10 percent of the emissions that Annex 1 countries (including the United States) have committed to reduce under the Kyoto Protocol for the target period 2008.2012. [FN: According to the Kyoto Protocol, Annex 1 countries, consisting of industrialized countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Central and Eastern Europe, including Russia, are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the commitment period 2008-2012. Reduction requirements vary by country, but for Annex 1 countries as a whole, greenhouse gas emissions should be approximately 5 percent below 1990 levels by the end of the commitment period. Assuming a 10 percent business-as-usual growth in emissions from 1990 to the commitment period, the actual reduction to meet the Kyoto requirements translates to 2.3 billion tons of CO₂ in 2010. It should be noted that the United States has stated it will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol. This means that the overall target of a 5 percent reduction is likely to translate to a 2.3 percent overall reduction, assuming the United States remains outside the Protocol during the first commitment period.]"

Flaring in Nigeria has contributed more emissions of greenhouse gases than all other sources in sub- Saharan Africa combined

A number of data sources exist on the size of the contribution to climate change from flaring in the Delta, though they should be treated with caution.

Table 6.1 shows data published by the US government's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center on carbon dioxide emissions from Nigerian flaring for 27 years from 1963-1989. Table 6.2 shows data on these emissions for 23 years from 1980-2002 published by the US government's Energy Information Administration.^[ 55 ]

Not only do these data conflict between themselves, in view of later information on the following page from the Nigerian government and the Strategic Plan, these data appear to be under-estimates.

The Figure below, from the Nigerian government's National Communication to the UNFCCC, shows gross carbon emissions from energy, land use change, industry, solvents use, agriculture and waste management in 1994 at 52.5 Tg-CO₂-C.^[ 56 ]

Using energy data from the DPR and the Federal Office of Statistics, gas flaring was calculated to have contributed over 15 Tg-CO₂-C. This is more than the emissions from transport, energy use and all other sources combined, except from biomass harvest. In carbon dioxide terms, the gas flaring contribution was 58.1 million tonnes or 50.4% of gross emissions from the energy sector - or 30% of carbon dioxide emissions from all sources - compared with emissions of 51.3 and 5.4 million tonnes of CO₂ from the consumption of liquid and gaseous fuels in the sector, respectively.

The most recent and independent source suggest that the carbon dioxide emissions from gas flaring are higher, at about 70 million tonnes of CO₂ Annually.^[ 57 ] For 2000, this figure alone would have made Nigeria the world's 42nd biggest emitter of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel and cement manufacture, ahead of the entire CO₂ equivalent emissions from these sources recorded, for example, for Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.^[ 58 ]

In addition to carbon dioxide emissions, the venting of gas gives rise to methane and volatile organic compound emissions. These occur from leaks and from the deliberate release of gas as gas, rather than burning. It is very difficult to find reliable data for these emissions, though the National Communication has acknowledged that once flaring has ended:

"it is most likely that pipeline leakage emissions may remain the single most significant source of methane, and a substantial contributor to non-methane volatile organic compounds in the country. The control pipeline leak associated methane (CH₄) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) emission, has thus become an issue of high priority in the action plans and programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the future potential impacts of climate change in Nigeria. This is especially so when considered along-side other important benefits such as improved ambient air quality, safe and efficient management of natural gas facilities in the Niger Delta." ^[ 59 ]

Flaring also contributes significantly to emissions of carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen. Along with volatile organic compounds, these three gases are classified by the IPCC as "reactive": their main role is in the formation of tropospheric ozone (O₃) - colloquially, photochemical smog or haze, often common in the Delta - which is the third most important greenhouse gas.^[ 60 ] Figures for these are also included in the National Communication, but again should be treated with caution.

SPDC has also published its own figures of emissions. In Table 6.3, abridged from the SPDC's 2003 Annual Report,^[ 61 ] the company's emissions from gas flaring have been unhelpfully described as "hydrocarbons". However, they are stated in the text of the report to include carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and methane, and so it may be assumed (on the basis of the comparatively small amounts reported for methane and nitrogen oxides) that almost all of the emissions are of carbon dioxide.^[ 62 ]

On the basis of its carbon dioxide emissions for 2000, however, SPDC's reported emissions alone would rank it above more than 100 countries of the world, including Ecuador, Estonia, Sri Lanka and Bahrain.^[ 63 ]

Whatever the precise figures, the following statement from the World Bank in 2002 sums up the scale of Nigerian flaring:^[ 64 ]

"15. The most striking example of environmental neglect has been in the oil sector, where natural gas flaring has contributed more emissions of greenhouse gases than all other sources in sub-Saharan Africa combined."

On climate change grounds alone, the practice must stop. It should be noted, however, that simply stopping gas flaring will not mean that greenhouse gas emissions are prevented in the round. Broadly, for a net positive carbon effect, the AG not burned would have to be used to displace coal or oil and not lead to an overall increase in consumption. Whether this will happen depends on many variables, but obviously needless burning of greenhouse gases should be prevented in its own right.

Notes

 Executive Summary | Introduction  | Section 2 | Section 3  | Section 4 | Section 5  | Section 6 | Section 7  | Section 8 | Section 9  | Conclusions 

GAS FLARING IN NIGERIA: A HUMAN RIGHTS, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC MONSTROSITY
A report by the Climate Justice Programme and Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth Nigeria, June 2005